Integrated modelling of land-use changes at rainforest margins in Indonesia

We develop and analyze integrated models of land-use change at rainforest margins in Indonesia. The gradient of land-use types from natural and logged forest to crop monocultures is modelled with emphasis on tree shade removal. A grid-based ecological model will be complemented by socio-economic analyses of the dynamics of individual households. The project investigates biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and household decision-making processes to determine whether there is a critical level of forest use intensity beyond which they are very negatively affected. The integrated models will be used to examine the economic and ecological effects of land-use intensification conditional on planning horizon. We will investigate whether it is possible to manage the trade-offs that arise from population pressure and the need to stabilize the forest margin. Overall, the model analyses will improve our understanding of the ecological and socio-economic trade-offs at the rainforest margin under land-use change.