Average detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections is estimated around nine percent

The number of confirmed cases for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 officially issued by countries and widely commented on by national and international media outlets dramatically understates the true number of infections, a recent report from the University of Göttingen suggests. Dr. Christian Bommer and Professor Dr. Sebastian Vollmer from Göttingen University have used estimates of COVID-19 mortality and time until death from a recent study published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases to test the quality of official case records. Their data shows that the 40 most affected countries have only discovered on average about 9% of coronavirus infections by March 30th (compared to 6% two weeks earlier).

Initial report published on April 6th

Updated detection rates published on April 14th

Additional explanations by Prof. Vollmer from April 6th, 2020